Oxford Academy: Ukraine and Russia. Is the world heading for a bloody war in Europe?

The risk of invasion and military escalation in Ukraine cannot be completely ruled out; But the spectacle with which Russia is dealing with this issue, and the escalating tensions with the United States, suggest that current developments do not threaten an impending war.

Liana Simchuk, a political scholar at the University of Oxford in Britain, mentioned it in an article on American national interest, claiming that the recent Russian reinforcement of 80,000 troops on its western border with Ukraine and in the Crimean peninsula, the social situation The international community is on alert, adding that Moscow’s intentions and a potential threat of war raise many concerns. Read also Moscow intends to close parts of the Black Sea. Macron and Merkel demand that Russia withdraw its forces from Ukraine’s borders The task of the difficult balance in the crisis of Russia and Ukraine. How Turkey is using Bayraktar to its advantage Tripartite summit to discuss tensions with Moscow.Russia warns NATO, Turkey of repercussions of supplying arms to Ukraine Tension between Russia and Ukraine

Technically speaking, Moscow and Kiev have been at war since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 and supported separatist forces in the eastern regions of Ukraine, Simchuk noted. The author has ruled out any solution to the crisis between the two countries soon. Given the strategic importance of Ukraine for Russia.

She explained that there are factors that could be excluded for an impending war, namely:

• After Joe Biden was elected President of the United States, it was to be expected that relations between Moscow and Washington would deteriorate, as the escalation of hostilities in eastern Ukraine was one of the means by which Russia is likely to demonstrate its hegemony.
• Discussions have recently intensified on accelerating Ukraine’s accession to NATO, although Moscow strongly opposes it.
• In February, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stepped up efforts to curb the influence of pro-Russian political forces in Ukraine.

This is a modal window.

We are experiencing an unexpected problem, please check and try again shortly

Error code: MEDIA_ERR_UNKNOWN Session ID: 2021-04-19: d1d6aece1c329913f288e523 Trigger object ID: vjs_video_3

• Moscow has so far failed to address chronic water insecurity issues in Crimea, which it has pledged to address by summer 2021, after Kiev cut off the water supply. peninsula water. This continues to entail very high costs for Moscow, as some estimates indicate that the occupation of Crimea has cost Russia around $ 23 billion over the past five years. Therefore, the recent military surge could be a way to put pressure on Kiev on this issue.
• Turkey recently increased its support for Ukraine and condemned Russian aggression at a meeting between the Turkish and Ukrainian presidents on the 12th of this month. It has been reported that Russia has expressed concerns about the presence of Turkish drones in Ukraine, and this issue is likely to be particularly controversial given that Russian-Turkish relations have come under great strain, after Turkey provided strong support to Azerbaijan in its war. last year with Armenia, Russia viewed this as interference in its regional sphere of influence.

An invasion is unlikely

Despite this escalation, the author says, the risk of a military clash between the two countries or an outright invasion of Ukraine by Russia remains relatively unlikely. For the following reasons:

• There is a precedent for Russian President Vladimir Putin using foreign policy adventures. Increase public acceptance rates, such as the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Therefore, its aim in the current escalation may be to increase public acceptance rates before the crucial parliamentary elections in September. But the potential economic costs that such an intervention would entail are likely to be very significant.
• This week, Washington imposed new sanctions on Russia, limiting its purchase of new sovereign debt. This is important and shows that US President Joe Biden is ready to back up his speech with action.
• Any further Russian expansion into Ukrainian territory will have more damaging consequences for the Russian economy, in addition to the possibility of diverting the Russian “Nord Stream2” gas pipeline to Germany, can be very costly for the Kremlin.