The confrontations in the vicinity of the Al-Aqsa Mosque – after the Israeli forces attacked the worshipers – are the explosive and burning Palestinian squares, in rejection of the occupation policies, in addition to the Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood file, which has been awaiting resolution in the Israeli courts since 2010.
The security establishment’s assessments of the possibility of escalating clashes and confrontations in the occupied Jerusalem and the occupied West Bank were strengthened, amid the political crisis in Israel and the hit-and-run battle in the Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood, and the failure of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to form a government, and transferring the mandate to the head of “there is a future” Yair Lapid. Read also A dialogue between a female activist and a settler who broke into her home in the Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood of Jerusalem provokes the feelings of Palestinians and Arabs Occupied Jerusalem .. Clashes before the hearing on the issue of evacuating Palestinian homes From Jerusalem to the West Bank, the door to confrontation with the occupation is wide open, and escalation is coming British website: Jerusalem is on the verge of erupting … and other signs of an uprising are on the horizon
The demonstrations of the “religious Zionism” coalition at the walls of Old Jerusalem, and the calls to kill Palestinians, increased the tension and boil over the walls of the old Jerusalem, with the “Temple organizations” planning a mass storming of the Al-Aqsa Al-Sharif on the occasion of the so-called “unification of Jerusalem” which coincides with the day Monday, the 28th of Ramadan.
The setting up of the iron barriers at the Damascus Gate, the unprecedented military alert in Old Jerusalem, and the plan to start the evacuation and displacement of 7 families from the Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood at the beginning of the month of Ramadan came to light the field, which deepened Israel’s internal crises, especially since the fascist right represented by the “religious Zionism” alliance He organized demonstrations outside the Damascus Gate and Sheikh Jarrah calling for the burning of Palestinians.
The depth of the internal crises, and the divergent Israeli positions regarding what is happening in Jerusalem, reflected the confusion at the official political level, represented by Netanyahu, who called for calm, or by the Chief of Police, Kobi Shabtai, who confirmed that what happened at Al Amoud Gate was the result of an “intelligence mistake.”
For their part, the rabbis of the “religious Zionism” alliance made it difficult for Netanyahu to form a government, and they strongly opposed the formation of any Zionist government with Arab support, even if it was from abroad.https://imasdk.googleapis.com/js/core/bridge3.455.0_en.html#goog_1022598122
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Deportation and Saddam
Political analyst Akiva Eldar believes that Netanyahu – who often uses incendiary issues and national security for his political goals, perhaps the most prominent of which is the Iranian nuclear scare – found himself in a state of clash with the Palestinian issue, which has been relaying any solutions and negotiations according to international conventions, and perhaps the timing of the events coincided with the crisis of formation. The government may deepen the crises faced by the Prime Minister.
In his speech to Al-Jazeera Net, Eldar considered that the checkpoints at the Damascus Gate and the events that followed came as a result of incorrect intelligence estimates by the police, and the matter was not related to political pressure from the top. On the contrary, in light of the popular resistance of the Palestinians, the police removed the iron barriers from Bab al-Amoud. With the approval of Netanyahu, who called for calm.
The political analyst pointed out that Netanyahu often uses security events to his advantage in his political career, but he ruled out whether he was pushing towards escalation and igniting the field, or he used that to the crisis of forming the government and his failure to reach a government coalition in light of his trial with corruption files.
But in the case of Jerusalem, the political analyst says, “Even if the protests expand and an intifada erupts, a scenario that is difficult to achieve at the current stage, Israel will not have an emergency government like the Corona government, which may have postponed Netanyahu’s departure from the political scene, but it is close to ousting him from the chair.” Prime minister”.
Fragility and instability
Yoav Stern, an Israeli journalist who specializes in Arab and Palestinian affairs, believes that precisely in the post-Corona reality, and in isolation from the events taking place in Jerusalem, where it seems that there is an expectation of a return to normal life, Israel is entering an unfavorable reality, whether because of the postponed Palestinian file, so it began to pay the price. About this postponement or the signs of America’s return to the Iranian nuclear agreement, which is considered destabilizing the position of Israel in the Middle East.
He explained to Al-Jazeera Net that what is happening in Israel, in light of the escalation of the governance crisis, the formation of the government, and the trial of Netanyahu with corruption files, reminds the public of disappointment in the aftermath of the Al-Aqsa Intifada in 2000, which spread to Arab towns inside Israel, and the second Lebanon war in 2006, when “liberal” Israel collided. , Dominating the Middle East by force, with weak political experience under weak and inexperienced leadership.
Accordingly, the Israeli journalist says, “The impression at this stage is that Israel is not moving towards a normal life, on the contrary, towards an agenda that is less stable, much less economic, and more fragile, and these are the conditions that Netanyahu is trying to exploit in order to remain a partner in governance and protect himself from corruption files in order not to He ends his political career behind bars. “
However, he ruled out that Netanyahu would succeed in exploiting the events in Jerusalem and forming an emergency government or even a unity government, suggesting that the anti-Netanyahu camp, and its “change bloc” charged with forming an alternative government, might exploit these events to direct strong criticism of Netanyahu and accuse him of not preserving Israeli sovereignty in ” Unified Jerusalem. “
Religious and patriotic
In light of the gradual escalation on the ground and tension with the Palestinian Authority, the Israeli security establishment pushed more forces and military units to the West Bank and Jerusalem, but it ruled out the outbreak of a third intifada and the loss of control over the events that are expected to decline in intensity after Ramadan and after the commemoration of the Nakba commemoration ceremonies on May 15th.
According to Haaretz newspaper, the “religious tension” caused by the month of Ramadan, the extreme right-wing demonstrations at Bab al-Amud and Sheikh Jarrah, or because of the sequence of sensitive days and national occasions for the Palestinians, are all reasons for the escalation on the ground.
But the army, as the military analyst in the newspaper says, “is not likely to expand the circle of escalation and out of control,” attributing this to “the lack of motivation and energy for the Palestinians to ignite an intifada, and what is happening is just a wave of riots and protests.”
In addition to these estimates – the military analyst explains – the army continued the maneuvers that it began before Ramadan, simulating comprehensive confrontations in the West Bank and Jerusalem and on the security wall with the Gaza Strip, and they are maneuvers that preempt any major movement or operations of the army in the near future, assuming there is no real military confrontation.
During the maneuvers that will last a week after the end of the month of Ramadan, the General Staff and the military leadership will practice the scenario of a multi-arena war with the Palestinians, and the exercises aim to test the possibility of the organizational and technological changes that the army made in recent years on the supposed battlefield with the Palestinians in particular.
Apart from the government formation crisis, the Chief of Staff of the Army Afif Kochavi described this May as a “month of war” due to the escalation of the situation in the Palestinian territories occupied in 1967.
This description came after a situation assessment session, on Saturday at the Ministry of Defense headquarters in Tel Aviv, for the security and intelligence services “Shin Bet” and the military establishment, where the Chief of Staff instructed additional reinforcements for the security forces and military and war means, in addition to preparing for a comprehensive escalation and taking a series of other steps.